IMF lowered forecasts for Ukraine's economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecasts for Ukraine's economy for 2024–2025, lowering them due to the ongoing war. The Fund's experts noted that earlier there were hopes for a quick end to the conflict, but its prolongation leads to new economic losses for the country.

This was reported by the Voice of America.

IMF Forecasts

It is noted that one of the factors contributing to the negative forecast is the "extensive bombings of the energy system".

"As for 2025, it reflects the fact that the Russian war continues. Previously, we projected it would end, but that hasn’t happened, and this means further losses for Ukraine’s economy," said Alfred Kammer, Director of the IMF’s European Department.

In the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, the IMF has lowered its growth projections for Ukraine’s economy for 2024 from 3.2% (as per the April forecast) to 3%.

Additionally, the International Monetary Fund significantly revised its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2025, reducing it from 6.5% in the April report to 2.5% in the current WEO release.

What else you need to know

As a reminder, the IMF has released new forecasts for the global economy. Next year, the average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar in Ukraine, according to the Fund, will be UAH 45.0 per US dollar. At the same time, the US dollar is expected to reach UAH 51.7 in 2029.

We also wrote that the IMF's updated Memorandum after the fifth review of the Extended Fund Facility program does not contain any obligations for Ukraine to raise energy tariffs. The Ukrainian side, together with IMF experts, is actively discussing options for maintaining the country's energy stability, especially given the large-scale damage caused by Russian aggression to Ukraine's energy system.